Do Any Free Agents Fit FC Cincinnati
2024 Offseason
How's It Shaked Out
As FC Cincinnati exits its 5th year in MLS. It will become a storied year. Saying goodbye to a club record signing in Brenner, a 10 making a run at the Golden Boot, constant questions about the backline, and a Supporters Shield winning year. There was a lot of good that happened over the past 7 months in Cincy. Gaps did show at some points in the year, but that is expected with all MLS teams. Be it Messi-ami, an Atlanta team which has spent upwards of 90 million on additions since entering MLS, or the young star-filled Orlando team. What was FC Cincinnati truly a team with the quality to win the shield on the pitch? There is a case to be made that the quality available was not up to snuff. Between lack of offensive depth, near-constant questions about centerbacks, and an extension saga for Luciano Acosta that drug on for way too long. There were distractions and questions throughout the season. The piece that clearly did help make the bunch shine above was the coaching staff. Pat Noonan assembled the best possible supporting cast for a first time manager, and it has shone over the past 24 months. No matter what outside forces were acting on the team, no matter what gaps the squad had, there was always a solution. The coaching staff is what I would attribute most of this teams success to.
Who Will Be Left
There will be 9 players on the chopping block this off-season. Yerson Mosquera, Junior Moreno, Yuya Kubo, and Evan Louro are all believed to be out of contract at the end of the season. While, London Aghedo, Santi Arias, Dom Badji, Alvaro Barreal, Ray Gaddis, Alec Kann, Ian Murphy, Quimi Ordonez, and Harrison Robledo all have options.
Out of Contract Players
Out of all of those guys, it would not be surprising to see some re-negotiations, and new contracts given. The main two I'd like to focus on are Yuya Kubo and Yerson Mosquera.
Yuya Kubo has been through a lot with this team. He has continuously found ways to adapt, and has really started his family here. His current contract will never be topped and is in all likelihood his last payday. It may be possible to retain him on a significant discount.
Yerson is a different story. There are barriers to retaining him. He is a burgeoning star for Colombia, is only on loan from Wolves, and Wolves will likely want a pretty penny for him. The best hope is that Wolves would like to see him get a break and continue in a system that benefits him. That is us, but it is not a for sure thing. In this piece, I will not be counting on Yerson in this piece.
Third keepers in America are a dime a dozen. I don't see the club retaining Evan Louro as a result of this. He has lacked consistent minutes for the past season and a half, and typically third keepers in MLS are tossed around fairly often. If Evan is as much of a vibes guy as fans are led to believe, then it is very possible the team retains him. I will say they will not retain him for this piece.
The only player I could really see Cincy making a run at, and not succeeding, will be the former DCU man, Junior Moreno. Cincy should re-sign Junior Moreno. I do not think they will be able to resign him. Before he joined Cincy, he almost joined Tigres. I could see him moving to a top Mexican side, or possibly being subject to the Messi temptation going on in Miami. To retain him, I think he would need upwards of 800k to stay in Ohio. I hold pause on giving him that much.
Options, Options, Options...
London Aghedo, Santi Arias, Dom Badji, Alvaro Barreal, Ray Gaddis, Alec Kann, Ian Murphy, Quimi Ordonez, and Harrison Robledo are all the players in this category. There are two players in this category which will, quite obviously, be retained.
Santiago Arias and Alvaro Barreal will both be retained. Those options are instant locks. Alvaro will likely be sold, and I have doubts about Santi staying. But in this senario, we will prep for Santi to stay, and Alvaro to leave.
The next category will be draft picks and academy grads. London Aghedo, Ian Murphy, Quimi Ordonez, Harrison Robledo. All four of these guys have their merits for chances with the first team, but I really only see one being retained on the first team, while two others will probably either be signed, or loaned to the Orange and 2s. Ian Murphy will stay will the first team. He has been bet on by Chris Albright, and he has turned out to be a league average defender, and is a satisfactory backup not in slots 1-24. London Aghedo would have been a first round pick if his situation with the Air Force Academy had been known, but at the time there were concerns he would be unable to defer his service. Thanks to Andre Carter of Army Football, that is no longer a concern for London. Cincinnati got a first round prospect in the third round, and unfortunately didn't get to have a preseason with him. He should be brought in with a similar situation as to what Brett Halsey was last year. London should hang in preseason, and either get signed to a first team deal, or be signed to a second team contract for the season. As for Quimi, I really doubt we see him back in any capacity next season. He has been given limited chances on the first team, and just hasn't proven himself. He very well could go back to his original academy team (Crew), and certainly improve with their two team. I just do not see him getting more chances here. Robledo is an interesting name to keep an eye on. He has grown as a player, and was an attacking outlet for Indy XI. I see him getting a shot with the Orange and 2s.
To recap that list, I see Ian Murphy being with the first team roster next year. Robledo and London Aghedo will have their chances with the 2 team, and Quimi will see the door after (I believe) 5 years with the Orange and Blue.
This leaves three... Dom Badji, Ray Gaddis, and Alec Kann. Each are leaders in their own right. There is certainly a world where all three of these guys stay. However, to keep their squad pushing for championships, changes and improvements are needed. Dom Badji was on at least 550k a season. Badji ended up being a good signing, however the price was not as nice. I say Cincy decline his option, and attempt to retain him at around 400k with performance obligation to extend him at 450k for 2025. That would probably he the largest offer Dom would receive in free agency, and it would be great to keep him in the attack. Alec Kann should probably be extended if he is alright with being a backup to Roman. As the infamous Starbucks conversation an Atlanta United fan overheard, he might not be happy being a backup, but at the worst, we could trade him. This leaves Ray Gaddis. Ray has never scored a professional goal. He has the most consecutive minutes in MLS history without a goal. Ray Gaddis, a fullback for two of the best teams in MLS, has never scored a goal. He has one post season to do so in my opinion (He has been pushing forward, much more this season and he has yet to find the back of the net). I don't see him staying with the team in a playing capacity. He will probably end up on the MLS roundtables for Apple, and man does he deserve it.
Whose Left
All of this means, out of 13 players who could possibly leave this offseason, I believe one will be sold, and 5 will stay. Those five staying will be Santiago Arias, Dom Badji, Alec Kann, Ian Murphy, and Yuya Kubo. I think that is a very good amount of experience to keep on this roster, and gives us enough room to add some significant youth additions where it is desperately needed.
Roster Look
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What Is Needed
There will be many holes for this squad, and a dearth of ways to fill them for cheap. Unless Albright trade for a higher draft pick, there will be no young players added outside of academy signees. So he will likely have 5 senior roster slots, 2 supplemental roster slots, and 2 reserve roster slots. There will be 9 slots to find 3 starters, and depth in roughly 4 positions. That isn't the worst all things considered. Last offseason Chris needed more starters, and only ended up signing 3 bona-fide starters, and he signed 3 major depth pieces. This offseason is much more manageable, and all of these departures, or gaps, have been known for months. It will be much easier for Chris to fill these gaps.
Chris will need to sign starters at leftback, defensive midfield, and at least one centerback. In this scenario I have Ian Murphy starting. I believe that Ian is exactly what Chris hoped he could be. Every MLS team has at least one college player on the backline or in goal. The more good college players you have, over the course of the next 4 to 5 years that they are on your squad, you can, on average, spend 200k less for every position and get performance of league average quality. To make a good defense in MLS, you need at least one NCAA player to save on money, and any additions past that only raise the ceiling for the rest of the squad. In Cincy's case, there will be 3 contributors all in this category in Roman Celentano, Nick Hagglund, and Ian Murphy. That is a save of roughly 600k for the near future.
As for bench players, Chris will likely have enough locker room guys to keep the vibes the same, so new additions for the bench will have to be good enough to get into this team, and challenging for a starting spot almost from the get go. There will need to be a centerback, fullback, defensive midfielder, and a striker or strong winger.
What Free Agents Fit
With all of this being said, after looking at the list of free agents according to the MLSPA, there are a few names I would love to highlight as being good fits.
John Nelson - Backup or Starting LCB
Now, this isn't a need that is even listed above. However something is certain. When Johnny came back to Ohio he was very happy, and depending on who you want to believe, was unhappy when he was selected by St. Louis in their expansion draft. So unhappy in fact, when St. Louis had to resign him to a deal that would place him in roster slots 1-20, he must've only allowed them to sign him to a one-year deal.
Halfway through this year, he began to feature less and less for Saint Louis, and has not appeared since the 24th of July. That just so happens to be right before the close of the secondary window. Could John Nelson return to Cincy this offseason? I think the chance he returns to Ohio are high, and if he were to come to Cincinnati, he unfortunately doesn't quite fit what we need in a leftback. He can progress the ball, but not at the level that Alvaro Barreal can. So I would expect him to be a solid, starter or backup left centerback.
Griffin Dorsey - Starting or Backup Fullback
Griffin Dorsey was a Generation Adidas draft pick by Toronto. He left Toronto in 2021 with his tail between his legs, and it did not look like he would have a career in soccer. A month later, Houston picked him up! Since then, he has transitioned to a role as a right back rather than a winger. This has benefited his play, and made him a standout fullback in MLS. He slowly built up to taking Houston's starting rightback role, and profiles similarly to Santiago Arias.
Griffin is currently on 150k a year, and I think offering him around 200k next year with incentives increasing towards 300k for 2025 with both years being guaranteed would be enough to tempt him to Ohio. The inner college soccer fan of myself did notice that Griffin does have a brother playing for the Wildcats right now. The Junior is a bright spot on what is a rather lack luster UK team right now. It's always been nice to have inroads into good college soccer teams.
Griffin offers less flexibility than what it seems like Chris would like from his players (He can likely only play on the right), but with most of our other fullbacks being very versatile, it may allow for some stability along the backline. If Griffin were signed, in all likelihood he would be starting on the right side, with Arias playing on the left.
Donovan Pines - Starting Right Centerback
A DMV lifer, Donovan Pines is DC United's standout centerback. He was signed to a homegrown deal when he was 20 after a few standout seasons at the Maryland Terrapins. When he has been healthy, he has been a perennial starter for DCU. Between his 93 MLS appearances and 2 appearances for the USMNT, he has cemented himself as a very important player in the US soccer landscape. With him being available on a free transfer this offseason, we should jump at the chance of making him an offer.
A noticeable gap in our current roster has emerged for next season, and that is right centerback. With Yerson likely not being here next season, we will be down a left centerback and a right centerback. I believe there is a good chance Ian Murphy will start on the left on opening day, but regardless of that, we can not run out Alvas Powell at RCB, which did happen this season. With Donovan Pines, since he is a free agent, convoluted MLS rules will only allow us to offer, either 15% on what he already makes, or 15% on top of the max salary budget charge of $683,750. So the maximum offer Cincy could give would be either $786,312 or 15% on his current $200,000 salary, which would be $230,000. I can't find which one the league is currently using, but if we go by how Dom Badji was signed, it seems like the max would be more in line with with $786,312. It might be worth that whole chunk to bring in another consistent piece in a backline that, at times, has been a hodge podge of mis-fits. I would say offering around $600k would probably be enough to convince him to take the 9 hour drive to TQL Stadium.
Xavier Arreaga - Starting Centerback
This is the first player who I will be talking about that is technically not out of contract, but has an option that is very unlikely to be triggered. Xavier was a starter for 4 of his 5 seasons in Seattle, a time in which they continued their greatness from the late 2010s, and a time in which they missed the playoffs for the first time in their MLS history. Shortly before the 2023 season began there was a controversial Instagram post reposted by Xavier Arreaga before he deleted it an apologized shortly after. There have not seen many redemption arcs by signee's in the Chris Albright era, in fact we have only really seen Chris decline the contract option of Geoff Cameron, a player who has been outspoken on his personal views. Since that post, and since the emergence of Jackson Regan, Xavier Arreaga has been relegated to garbage time minutes, and only a few halftime substitute appearances. Is there more going on behind the scenes? That remains to be seen, however Seattle did reportedly have him on the trading block earlier this season. That was around the time Charlotte traded for Bill Tuiloma from Portland. Portland received 800k in GAM spread over two seasons for a, at that point, an MLS starter for a team that missed out on the playoffs by 1 point. Arreaga had once been at the same level as Tuiloma, for a much more successful team.
The key in Arreaga is if Seattle will pick up his option. He is an MLS caliber centerback who was sent to the bench, and barely returned throughout the season. That is all well and good for a player making $300,000, however Arreaga makes $750,000 as a base salary. With Seattle being unable to find a suitor for a starting MLS centerback on that high of a salary, it makes no sense for them to keep hold of him. Any offer for Arreaga will likely still have to be a lucrative deal, but Albright will be able to afford that after getting out from under a few other contracts in the 400-700k range (IE Junior Moreno, Yerson Mosquera, and Alvaro Barreal).
Alex Ring - Starting Defensive Midfielder
Now come the stretch players, who I don't believe will make it to free agency, but I would give each of them about a 40% chance of even leaving their teams.
Once a pillar of NYCFC's rise, now reduced to a utility man in Austin. Alexander Ring has not had the best 24 months. With Claudio Reyna vacating the GM position, changes were bound to happen. Ring lost the captaincy of Austin, and due to a dearth of centerback talent, he ended up being pushed to centerback. He only recently moved back to midfield, to mixed success.
Will Austin pick up his 1.5 million dollar option? There is always a chance Austin wants to retain one of the best utility knife players in the league, however at his price point, with Austin performed this year, and struggles throughout their squad, it might be worthwhile for Austin to part with the defensive midfielder they paid over a million GAM for.
If he were to opt for free agency, Cincy would likely be giving him a deal similar to Kubo's current contract.
Darlington Nagbe - Starting Midfielder
I just want to start this off by saying, I bought the Darlington Nagbe AM4MLS Adidas shoes that were made in partnership with an Atlanta based rapper, ATLUD, and Darlington Nagbe.
Not Only did I love these shoes, but I bought 4 pairs of them when they were discounted to $60. Those ugly, uncomfortable shoes, that were nearly impossible to lace, I bought 4 pairs of them.
I don't want Darlington Nagbe in Orange and Blue, I don't want him on the Orange and 2's, I don't want him on Columbus, I want him to go all the way to Portland and just hang out for a few more years.
All of that being said, it is unarguable though that Darlington Nagbe would be a great addition to this Cincinnati team. With Moreno gone in this scenario, and Obi playing so well he might draw eyes from overseas, Nagbe would be a great addition for Moreno's spot, and has the experience in the league to help keep stability if any other players were to leave next summer.
Once again, Columbus does hold on option on their captain, and the whole reason Nagbe went to Columbus was because of their proximity to home. So as long as Columbus wants him, there is a really good chance of him staying. However with his option being around 1.5 million dollars or more, what are the chances Columbus lets go of their captain?
Columbus is in the middle of a squad overhaul for Wilfred Nancy, and Nagbe doesn't not fit what Nancy likely wants, however, there are young players that Columbus is trying to build around, notably in midfield. Both Aidan Morris and Matan are extremely important players for the Crew's future, and all the while, some fans have questioned Nagbe's commitment over some actions during games. Does this mean the Crew will let him go? No. If they do, should FC Cincinnati be in the conversation, absolutely yes. Do I hope Cincy is in the conversation? I sincerely hope not.
Uri Rossell - Starting Midfielder
The most getable option player available in my opinion. It all relies upon whether or not Gaston Brugman is on a recovery path which could see him appear early next season. The Galaxy has a few other young defensive mids, on much cheaper deals. So why keep the MLS veteran on 500k? He profiles very similarly to Moreno, and is once again, a veteran MLS presence in the midfield.
A very solid MLS midfielder, to replace a solid MLS midfielder. If the Galaxy were to reject Uri's option, and he were to stay in re-entry, I'd be inclined to pick him up in the first round of re-entry. If he does opt for free agency, I think offering him something similar to what he is on right now would be a perfect, maybe even a bit of a raise. Offering him 550k to be a Moreno replacement is probably not ideal, however, I do believe Moreno will be moving on to greener pastures, and he has so significantly out performed his salary, that we will not be getting MLS experience for the same price he joined us for.
What Will We Gain From Free Agency
The goal in free agency over the past few years from Chris Albright has been to gain MLS experience. In 2022 those adds were Dom Badji, Alvas Powell, Rey Gaddis, and Alec Kann (If you want to include Moreno in this, I think you could, but we did end up paying DC, there was This and This as well). We gained, at the time, what we expected to be 2 starters in 2022. In 2023 we had the failed pursuit of Matt Hedges, and we had no other signings who were eligible for MLS free agency, however we did see the free transfers of Arias and Malik Pinto.
Chris has shown his willingness to spend on veterans in MLS. He has chased veteran talent in the past, and is not afraid to give them the VIP experience. With us likely saying goodbye to veterans on the squad this year, this will leave a few possible gaps in leadership, as well as gaps in youth.
I'd expect three MLS free agents to be signed this offseason. I think one signing will actually be a given.
I am expecting John Nelson to return to FC Cincinnati. We will have no leftbacks on the squad for next season. With his current situation, and the rather unfortunate parting of ways that happened last offseason, I'd expect him to return this offseason to help fill a gap in the squad, and if we do attempt to move to a back four, he can also effectively help us transition to that back four.
One of the other noticeable gaps Cincy has is centerback. Injuries have been an issue for Donovan Pines in DC United, however that has been the case for multiple players. Players in the past have complained about DCU's approach to player health. With the success of Arias given his recent injury history, I actually believe Cincy might end up being a first choice for a player like Donovan Pines who has yet to have a season in MLS where he has played at least 65% of available minutes.
As much as I want Uri Rossell on this team over Darlington Nagbe, for nothing more than personal hatred for his shoes and his play against us in 2021, the other signing I believe is actually realistic would have to be Darlington Nagbe. Does he fit what we are building? 100% yes! Does he have needed MLS experience? 100% yes. Will he cost a lot? Yes, maybe too much for Chris Albright, however he will provide significant minutes and experience in a midfield that could be considered the best in MLS
Where Would This Put Cincy
Cincy needs three starting caliber additions this offseason. Chris Albright is also already set up to say goodbye to a few midsized contracts, as well as one or two larger ones. This frees up around 3.6 million in total roster spend, but with the assumed sale of Barreal, Chris stands to actually gain the convertible GAM as well, which should be around 1.2 million. With 4.8 million in freed up roster space, there would be ample space to fill five senior roster slots, as well as re-sign Badji and Kubo. With the estimations I have given, the re-signing of Kubo (600,000), and Badji (425,000), as well as the signings of John Nelson ($150,000), Donovan Pines (600,000), and Darlington Nagbe (1,300,000). All of those signings will take up approximately 3.1 million dollars. Notably, Nagbe and Miazga both would take up the full available TAM for 2024 (2.4 million). Past those guys, we will have roughly 1.9 million in GAM spoken for in 2024 with only 5, while Chris will still have 1.9 million in GAM to spend, which will certainly open up a lot of other possibilities for the gm to find injections of youth for the team in some "hidden gem" level transfer fees, which Chris has shown he can do. This will all leave Cincy needing 1 or 2 starters, likely both of those on the defensive line. This would give a great base for Pat Noonan to help raise the floor of this squad.
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